In The Lab: Astros Left Field Offense

Let’s start off by being honest. Left field is a bit of a quagmire for the Astros as they aren’t sure if Yordan Alvarez will get a majority of the starts out there or if they can follow through with their plan to DH him. I should not that in the Hall of Fame Index I did not have a DH position, so Yordan would be categorized as a left fielder anyway. We will undoubtedly see Zach Cole there on occasion, Zach Dezenzo on occasion, and Joey Loperfido on occasion. For our purposes here, we will look at just Alvarez and Dezenzo.

However, I am throwing in one more name that is not and probably never will be an Astro. I insert him as a frame of reference. One of the things I have found is that analytics requires any number of frames of reference. I usually talk about the averages for each number we look at it, but sometimes it is informative to look at what the very best are doing. So, I am including a player that I believe to be the best overall hitter in baseball. I’m certain I will get pushback there, but I have my preferences which I will go into.

• Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives around 30 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.

• Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.

• BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.

• Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 75 percent is around league average.

• HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.

Yordan Alvarez

Coming into last season, Yordan had two superpowers. He hit the ball really hard and more of his flyballs turned into dingers than any other Astro. Obviously, those numbers dipped last season in the power department, but we can probably chalk it up to the hand thing and move on. However, his chase and contact rates are also slightly above the big league average, so the key to his game is that he doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses at the plate.

Keep that socked away in your mind when we look at what to expect from him but also where to categorize him in the game. If there is a significant bounce back candidate on this squad it is Yordan. He was starting to come back late last season, but then injured his ankle running the bases (stepped funny on home plate) and was lost for the season. Just for fun, let’s compare him with the best hitter in baseball.

These are Juan Soto’s numbers. I will grant that Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani will likely have singular categories better than Soto. Luis Arreaz makes more contact than Soto. However, that is not what makes Soto the best hitter in baseball. What makes him the best hitter in baseball is the microscopic chase rate. There is no player in baseball more adept at getting on base than Soto and he succeeds in making people pay when they do come in the zone.

What strikes me is that Yordan is not that far away from Soto historically. The only category that is wildly different is the chase category. Yordan hits the ball just as hard. When you go back beyond these three seasons you see that he also has similar power numbers. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it is probably a duck. If you put up underlying numbers that match the best hitter in baseball then you are one of the best hitters in baseball. Yordan has an opportunity to be THAT guy again. If he is THAT guy then the Astros offense becomes viable again.

Zach Dezenzo

These are mostly the minor league numbers for Dezenzo and as we can see, he did not play above AA in 2023. This hitting profile is becoming all too familiar. It looks almost identical to what Brice Mathews is bringing to the table. Not to spoil any future articles, but we will see it again with Zach Cole and Joey Loperfido. Dana Brown has a type. He likes selective hitters that hit the ball hard and have good power. Unfortunately, that usually comes with some hit and miss.

I only have the numbers to go on, but I would assume the idea is that hopefully one or two of them will make enough contact to be viable big league hitters. Most hitters are not Juan Soto or Yordan Alvarez. Those guys are the guys that get megadeals. Most hitters have a hole. The question is where do you want your hole? The Astros have chosen contact for most of their upper level prospects. Is that right way to go? What do you think?