Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds, Picks and Best Bets 2026: Rory Rules Bay Hill

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Last updated: Wednesday, March 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

⛳ Arnold Palmer Invitational: Key takeaways

• Best early bet: Rory McIlroy to win (+900) – Approach game is dialed ahead of 12th visit to a track he’s won and consistently contended at.
  
  
• Best early value: Corey Conners to win(+7000) – Checks course history box and has the tee-to-green game to give his putter chances to score.
  
  
• Course: Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodgeis a massive 7,466-yard Par 72 annually standing as one of the tour's toughest tests. 
  
  
• Weather: Early forecasts call for warm, mainly sunny weather with winds topping out at 20 mph gusts and potential for chance precipitation in the afternoon Thursday and Friday. 
  
  
• Expected cut: The API is a player-hosted Signature Event featuring a 36-hole cut to the Top 50 and ties, in addition to any player(s) within 10 shots of the lead. The cut has been between +3 and +5 in each of the past five years. 

Arnold Palmer Invitational odds: favorites & full field

The Arnold Palmer Invitational runs March 5-8 at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.

Odds as of Wednesday, March 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Check out the full Arnold Palmer Invitational field from the official PGA Tour website.

Best bets card

• Outright: Rory McIlroy (+900): Proven track record at Bay Hill with a win and five more Top 10s, and his approach game is dialed.
  
  
• Outright: Ludvig Aberg (+4000): Distance and tee-to-green game are perfect fits for success at Bay Hill, with a T20 last time out.
  
  
• Top 20: Corey Conners (+170): Elite ball-striking paved way to a pair of solo thirds at Bay Hill and two more Top 20s in past five trips here.
  
  
• Top 20: Nicolai Hojgaard (+130): Worldwide heater consists of T4-T22-T3-T6 run while gaining true strokes across the board.
  
  
• Matchup: Si Woo Kim over Hideki Matsuyama (-111): Kim’s elite tee-to-green game trumps Matsuyama’s inconsistent driver over 72 holes.
  
  
• Matchup: Pierceson Coody over Harris English (-105): Coody is seventh in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, and he’s topped English in four of five 2025 events.

Course breakdown: What wins at Bay Hill Club & Lodge?

Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge annually ranks among the toughest non-major courses on the PGA Tour circuit due to its 7,466-yard length, thick Bermuda rough, firm greens, and water hazards in play on nine of 18 holes.

Add the potential for gusty Florida winds to have a say to Bay Hill requiring far more long approaches (49.95% from 175 yards or longer in 2025) than the typical course, and elite tee-to-green play has historically been paramount to success. The winner has finished Top 3 in true strokes gained tee-to-green in three of the past five years, after all.

Winning at Bay Hill has also required tidy work around the greens, with both Russell Henley and Scottie Scheffler pacing the field in true strokes gained around-the-green, while each ranking eighth in scrambling during their respective victories the past two years.

The Dick Wilson\Joe Lee design is a true test that also rewards course knowledge and experience, and Bay Hill also ranks among the most predictive tracks on the PGA Tour schedule. After all, six of the past seven winners had a prior Top-15 finish in the API before their victory, with Scheffler winning in 2022 and 2024.

• Highest percent of penalty strokes in four of the past five years
• All four Par 3s are 199 yards or longer
• Water hazards are in play on nine of 18 holes
• Thick Bermuda rough penalizes missed fairways and greens
• Par-5 scoring at a premium

Players to watch

• Rory McIlroy: The 2018 winner has five more Top 10s in this event and checks all the boxes required to win again.
  
  
• Corey Conners: Elite ball-striker has a pair of solo thirds at Bay Hill while gaining true strokes on approach in all seven trips to the track.
  
  
• Matt Fitzpatrick: Englishman has four Top 10s across 11 visits to Bay Hill and ranks second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green through his past 20 rounds.

Key stats & player profiles to target

• True strokes gained tee-to-green
• True strokes gained around the green and scrambling
• Par-5 scoring
• Bogey avoidance
• True strokes gained off-the-tee

Players to watch

• Scottie Scheffler: Wins and statistical dominance have gone hand-in-hand for Scheffler, dating back to picking up career victory No. 2 here in 2022.
  
  
• Tommy Fleetwood: With oodles of experience at Bay Hill, a sterling statistical profile, and consecutive Top 10s leading into the API, Fleetwood is rightfully positioned among the betting favorites.
  
  
• Jake Knapp: Puts circles on the card on Par 5s and has carded four straight Top 10s while gaining true strokes across the board ahead of second visit to Bay Hill.

Outright picks: winners to bet

Pick 1: Rory McIlroy to win (+900)

The 2018 winner has five additional Top-10 finishes at Bay Hill, and Rory McIlroy's approach game is dialed in to complement his elite distance off the tee.

• Course Fit: Track record at Bay Hill reinforces McIlroy's ideal fit here
• Recent Form: Coming off T2 at The Genesis
• Market Value: Priced fairly given current form and course history

Risk: Short odds limit ability to target other betting favorites.

Pick 2: Ludvig Aberg to win (+4000)

The Swede has the distance and tee-to-green game to conquer this course, and Ludvig Aberg will also be playing this event for the fourth time following three straight Top 25s here.

• Course Fit: Top 25s in all three trips to Bay Hill
• Recent Form: Encouraging T20 in the Genesis
• Market Value: This price is too long for Aberg's course fit

Risk: Just a single Top 20 finish in 2026.

Top finishing position bets

Pick 1: Corey Conners to finish Top 20 (+170)

The elite ball-striker has a pair of solo thirds at Bay Hill while gaining true strokes on approach in all seven trips to the track, and Corey Conners has heated up when hitting Florida each of the past five seasons.

• Market fit: Long odds considering track record in this event
• Key stat: Four Top 20s in past five trips to Bay Hill

Risk: Conners hasn't carded a Top 20 in 2026.

Pick 2: Nicolai Hojgaard to finish Top 20 (+130)

Nicolai Hojgaard is on a worldwide heater to the tune of a T4-T22-T3-T6 run while gaining true strokes across the board and will be playing Bay Hill for the third time after a weekend-low -11 in the Cognizant Classic last week.

• Market fit: Plus-money odds despite elite current form
• Key Stat: Gained true strokes in each metric across past four events

Risk: Missed cut in his first two trips to Bay Hill.

Matchup & head-to-head bets

Pick 1: Si Woo Kim over Hideki Matsuyama (-111)

While both players are off to hot starts in 2026, Hideki Matsuyama has struggled with driver in hand and ranks 37th in accuracy and 64th in true strokes gained off-the-tee, which will be penalizing at Bay Hill.

• Matchup Advantage: Matsuyama’s inconsistent tee game
• Key Stat: Kim paces field in true strokes gained tee-to-green in 2026

Risk: Matsuyama has a far better track record in this event.

Pick 2: Pierceson Coody over Harris English (-105)

There’s no statistical comparison between the tee-to-green play of Pierceson Coody and Harris English ahead of the API, and Coody has beaten English in four of the five tournaments they’ve played in to start 2026.

• Matchup Advantage: Coody has topped English in four of five 2026 events
• Key Stat: Coody is seventh in field in true strokes gained tee-to-green

Risk: This is English’s 14th trip to Bay Hill.

Odds movement & market notes

With both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in the field, there is a clear one-two at the top of the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds list, and I would expect the highest betting handle to come in on Scheffler and McIlroy when it's all said and done. Additionally, I'm not anticipating an out-of-nowhere winner this week, either.

Bay Hill typically rewards players with an elite tee-to-green game and course experience, so I wouldn't be surprised if Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Collin Morikawa were also popular targets for bettors this week.

Ludvig Aberg has seen his odds drop from an opening +4000 to +3300, which signals he's been a popular target down the board. 

How to watch & tee times (quick links)

How to watch (All Times ET):

• Thursday-Friday: 2:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (Golf Channel)
• Saturday-Sunday: 12:30 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. (Golf Channel); 2:30 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
• PGA Tour official broadcast schedule

Tee times:

• Round 1 and 2 tee times from the PGA Tour website.
• All players will tee off No. 1 during this Signature Event.

Rory McIlroy tee times:

• Round 1: 1:30 p.m. ET
• Round 2: 10:20 a.m. ET

Ludvig Aberg tee times:

• Round 1: 1:00 p.m. 
• Round 2: 9:45 a.m. ET

Nicolai Hojgaard tee times:

• Round 1: 10:50 a.m. ET
• Round 2: 7:40 a.m. ET

Corey Conners tee times:

• Round 1: 9:05 a.m. ET
• Round 2: 12:15 a.m. ET

Arnold Palmer Invitational betting FAQ

When is the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational?

The 2026 edition of the Arnold Palmer Invitational is Thursday, March 5, to Sunday, March 8.

Where will the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational be played?

The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational is being played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida.

What is the “Florida Swing?”

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the second event of the "Florida Swing," a series of tournaments played on the state's challenging Bermuda grass courses.

Who is the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational favorite?

World No. 1 and two-time winner Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite in the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds at BetMGM.

What are the Arnold Palmer Invitational FRL markets?

First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which player(s) will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament. 

How do Arnold Palmer Invitational matchup bets work?

When betting Arnold Palmer Invitational matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two players listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.

What is the Arnold Palmer Invitational cut line?

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a player-hosted Signature Event featuring a 36-hole cut to the Top 50 and ties, in addition to any player(s) within 10 shots of the lead. The cut has been between +3 and +5 in each of the past five years.

Are the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds the same across all sportsbooks?

You'll see slight variations in odds across sportsbooks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.

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