Three questions for season two of Jacob Misiorowski

On Tuesday, Jacob Misiorowski is set to make his spring debut. With the departure of Freddy Peralta, he is arguably the highlight of the Brewers’ rotation now. Brandon Woodruff is still the longest-tenured Brewer, but Misiorowski is being pushed as one of the new faces of the franchise. As he enters his second season, here are a few questions for him in the upcoming year.

Can he build off his strong first season?

Misiorowski had one of the most hyped debuts that a Brewers pitcher has had in recent years. His career began with 11 no-hit innings, and he carried a perfect game into the seventh inning of his season start. That helped earn him an All-Star selection after just five major league starts. While Misiorowski came back down to earth as the season went on (which may have been affected by a left tibia contusion that put him on the IL), his season ended strong, with a postseason run that put him right back in the spotlight.

That means the bar is set very high for him as season two begins. It also makes it harder to set reasonable goals for him. Early projections are overall positive. ZiPS has him projected for 26 appearances covering 116 2/3 innings, with a 3.86 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 10.93 K/9, and 3.93 BB/9. The number of innings would be a step back for him, and the strikeouts would dip slightly, but he would also see some improvement in the walk rate. This would align with his minor league development, where he has seen small drops in his strikeout rate accompanied by a reduced walk rate.

This is also where we would have to temper our expectations as fans. It may not be reasonable to expect another All-Star year for Misiorowski. He might not even end up as the best pitcher in the Brewers’ rotation. Would a season with small improvements to his stats be considered a success? It might be, since it would at least show continued growth from year to year. It just wouldn’t be as flashy as his debut in the league was last year. At the same time, it would be exciting to see him remain just as electric and establish himself as a premier pitcher in the league.

How will his jump in innings be handled?

Teams won’t set specific innings limits for pitchers, but this is an important question for Misiorowski as he continues to develop in the majors. He already saw a significant increase in his innings between 2024 and 2025. After pitching 97 1/3 innings in 2024, that workload increased to 141 1/3 innings between the regular season and postseason. That is a 45% increase. Most teams use 20% to 25% as a general rule of thumb for inning increases, but that is not a hard rule. It comes down to the individual pitcher and how they respond to the workload.

Misiorowski struggled after a short IL stint at the start of August, posting a 6.41 ERA and 4.00 FIP in his first six starts after his return. However, he rebounded in his final two starts and was included on the postseason roster. That’s where he really shone, allowing just two earned runs in three postseason starts, covering 12 innings.

It’s highly unlikely that the Brewers will increase his innings by 45% again in 2026. That would make him a 200-inning pitcher in his second season. In fact, most of the early projections only bump his innings up by a small amount. I mentioned ZiPS above, which has him pitching 116 2/3 innings in 2026. That would be a drop from the 129 1/3 innings he pitched between the majors and minors in 2025. Most of the other projections on FanGraphs put him between 134 and 139 innings, making 30 to 32 appearances.

It’s also interesting that many of these projections only have Misiorowski making 24-25 starts. A little of that could be from the Brewers using openers, which they likely will continue to do. It also could be a projection that Misiorowski spends part of the season in the bullpen, potentially as innings management. However, there’s nothing that says he can’t get a full season of starts. Quinn Priester, with 29 appearances last season (realistically, all starts despite using openers), pitched 157 1/3 innings. That’s likely near the top of what we would see Misiorowski pitch this season. Even if he pitched that much, it would still leave some space for postseason appearances, and some start manipulation during the season could give him a start off here and there.

The main question for Misiorowski is if that increased workload will affect him at all. While he has had an offseason to rest, it was still a major increase in innings. Is he fully rested and recovered from last season? Can he pitch a similar number of innings for another year?

How have other Brewers fared in their second seasons?

This question is not an easy one to answer, as other Brewers have taken different paths to establish themselves. Though the development staff has changed from year to year, the Brewers have put together a strong track record over the last several years, so it can still provide a reference point. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest names for the Brewers in the last several years:

• Brandon Woodruff: He got his first taste in the majors in August 2017. He made an impressive debut against the Rays on August 4, then made seven more starts to finish out the season. In 2018, he served in a bullpen role for most of the season, but also made a few starts as he bounced between the majors and Triple-A Colorado Springs. His regular season was strong enough for him to earn a postseason roster spot, where he made four appearances, two* of those starts (counting the decoy NLCS Game 5).
  • 2017: 43 IP, 8 games (all starts), 4.81 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
  • 2018: 42 1/3 IP, 19 games (4 starts), 3.61 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
• Freddy Peralta: He made his debut in 2018, helping fill the Brewers’ rotation as he bounced between the major and minor leagues. In the majors, he started 14 games before finishing the season in the bullpen. He also made a postseason appearance, pitching three scoreless innings. He spent most of 2019 in the bullpen after some early struggles in the rotation. While his ERA and FIP increased, his strikeout and walk rates both saw improvements.
  • 2018: 78.1 IP, 16 games (14 starts), 4.25 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 11.0 K/9, 4.6 BB/9
  • 2019: 85 IP, 39 games (8 starts), 5.29 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 12.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9
• Corbin Burnes: While the above two pitchers saw growth between seasons one and two, Burnes was the opposite. His career began out of the bullpen, and he started strong. After a 2.61 ERA out of the bullpen, he earned a spot on the postseason roster as well, where he allowed just two runs in six postseason appearances over nine innings. However, season two was a disaster. He started the season in the rotation but was quickly removed after recording a 10.70 ERA in four starts. A return to the bullpen helped, but not enough, and he went back to the minors at the end of July. Thankfully, the Brewers did not give up on him, and he began to show more improvement in his third season.
  • 2018: 38 IP, 30 games (no starts), 2.61 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9
  • 2019: 49 IP, 32 games (4 starts), 8.82 ERA, 6.09 FIP, 12.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9
• Aaron Ashby: Ashby made his debut in June 2021, making a spot start before returning in August. He initially pitched as a starter, but shifted to the bullpen to finish out the season. He made the opening day roster in 2022 and initially shifted between the bullpen and rotation. He eventually settled into the rotation and finished out the year there. Though the results didn’t look the best, the Brewers had enough confidence in him that they signed him to a five-year, $20.5-million extension after his second season. Unfortunately, he lost all of 2023 and some of 2024 due to a shoulder injury.
  • 2021: 31 2/3 IP, 13 games (4 starts), 4.55 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 11.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9
  • 2022: 107 1/3 IP, 27 games (19 starts), 4.44 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 10.6 K/9, 3.9 BB/9

How will Misiorowski perform in year two? Looking at the Brewers’ track record, he’s likely due for some more growth. Tuesday will be the start of his second season. Let’s see another good story for the Brewers.