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ESPN's Dan Orlovsky explains why he's not sold on Fernando Mendoza originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky isn’t ready to crown Fernando Mendoza the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
During Thursday's episode of First Take, Orlovsky said his early film study of the Indiana Hoosiers quarterback left him underwhelmed despite Mendoza’s Heisman Trophy winning campaign and national championship run.
“I studied the first five games of Mendoza’s tape, and it’s not what I expected,” Orlovsky said, later adding he has worked through eight games. “You see good, but there’s a lot of underwhelming.”
Orlovsky described a heavy reliance on run pass options and back shoulder fades, along with clean pockets that limited adversity. He questioned the volume of high-level throws over the middle of the field and said there were instances when Mendoza left clean reads and “became a runner unnecessarily.”
“If you take away the RPOs and those back-shoulder fades, there’s just not a ton of big-time throws,” Orlovsky said. “Very good decisions — I think that’s his superpower. He avoids negative plays. But when you’re talking about first pick, first pick, I’m just not there.”
Orlovsky added that through eight games he found Ty Simpson’s tape at Alabama “significantly more impressive,” while acknowledging he has yet to finish Mendoza’s full season evaluation.
Despite that assessment, Mendoza remains the consensus top prospect on most draft boards. The Heisman winner fills a major need for the Las Vegas Raiders, who own the No. 1 pick and are widely projected to select a franchise quarterback.
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New Raiders coach Klint Kubiak praised Mendoza’s winning attitude. “He won a national championship and that’s what you want,” Kubiak said at the NFL Combine. “You want a winner.”
Orlovsky’s skepticism adds to what had appeared to be a foregone conclusion atop the draft board. But will he sway others into believing Mendoza shouldn't go No. 1. That's what remains to be seen.
As for Mendoza, he'll opt out of throwing at the Combine and participate at Indiana’s pro day on April 1.
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