With the 2025 Texas Rangers season having come to an end, we shall be, over the course of the offseason, taking a look at every player who appeared in a major league game for the Texas Rangers in 2025.
Today we are looking at pitcher Jacob deGrom.
Jacob deGrom made 30 starts for the Texas Rangers in 2025.
That, in and of itself, is a success of sorts. When the Texas Rangers signed Jacob deGrom after the 2022 season, there were many dire predictions that the Rangers wouldn’t get a full season from him, that he might not make 30 starts in the entirety of his Ranger career, much less in a single season.
The thing about the “deGrom isn’t durable” narrative is that went from non-existent to conventional wisdom in roughly 18 months. From 2017 through 2020, deGrom made 107 starts, tied with Jon Lester for the 6th most in MLB in that span. Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke and Rick Porcello each had 110 starts, Patrick Corbin had 109 starts, and Lance Lynn had 108 starts. He was first in innings pitched in that span, with 690.1.
Then in 2021 he had one of the weirdest great seasons ever, putting up a 1.08 ERA in 15 starts. He followed that up with 11 starts in 2022. The missed time over those two campaigns resulted in deGrom going from a workhorse to unreliable in the public’s eyes.
Then 2023 and 2024 and deGrom made just 9 starts for the Rangers due to undergoing his second Tommy John surgery. The haters said deGrom couldn’t stay healthy. And they were correct. Honestly great call from the haters.
Until this past year, when deGrom made his 30 starts and threw 172 innings and put concerns — immediate concerns, anyway — about his ability to stay healthy to rest.
And that was the important thing, because if Jacob deGrom is healthy, he’s going to be really good. There was not really any question about that. Which is kind of funny, given his background as a ninth round pick out of Stetson who didn’t pitch until his junior year, someone who had his first Tommy John surgery soon after being drafted, someone who never was hyped coming up, who topped out at #10 on the BA Mets prospect lists.
A couple of digressions real quick…
First of all, something I’ve theorized before is that guys who transition from being a position player to pitching have a higher than usual risk of UCL damage right after making the switch. I haven’t studied this, its just anecdotal in nature, but it seems like we see a lot of instances of players converting to pitching, showing promise, and then having to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. I would guess that the change in stress on the elbow for someone in their 20s makes them more likely to tear the UCL. That said, as I mentioned in the Sam Haggerty writeup yesterday, I’m not a doctor, and I don’t even play one on TV.
Secondly, Jacob deGrom made his major league debut one month before his 26th birthday. That’s incredibly late for a player who is legitimately great. Whenever deGrom retires, he’s going to have a fascinating Hall of Fame case. He’s not going to have big compiler numbers — hell, he doesn’t even have 100 career wins yet — but he still has the aura of a Hall of Famer, with a stretch of being historically dominant. His JAWS score, right now, is almost identical to Felix Hernandez, who looks like he’s going to get voted into the Hall in the next few years. (Though he does trail Johan Santana, and I’m still angry about him being one-and-done.)
Getting back on point…I think it is fair to ask, how good was Jacob deGrom, really, in 2025? Ace good, or solid mid-rotation starter good?
deGrom’s 2.97 ERA is impressive, the 13th best among the 70 major league pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched in 2025. His ERA+ of 123, however, ranked him 21st — a byproduct of B-R’s park factors treating the Shed as extremely pitcher-friendly. And his 2.9 bWAR had him tied for 27th in the majors, tied with Quinn Priester and, ironically, Merrill Kelly, and one slot behind his new teammate MacKenzie Gore, due to the credit that the Rangers defense (which B-R’s numbers have as easily the best in the majors in 2025) gets towards his run prevention.
Interestingly, deGrom didn’t allow an unearned run all season. Well, maybe that’s not interesting to you, but it is to me.
If you prefer fWAR, deGrom does better there, with his 3.4 fWAR being 21st in the majors among the 70 pitchers with at least 150 innings in 2025. And his xERA (3.36) ordinal ranking was even better, as he slotted in at 11th overall.
So its kind of complicated.
deGrom isn’t the same pitcher he was when he was with the Mets. His K rate — 27.7% in 2025 — is just great, not otherworldly (in that ridiculous 2021 season, he struck out 45% of the batters he faced). His walk rate is also great, not unworldly, though the combination of great K rate and great walk rate is still pretty special. His velocity is down a tad from his final years with the Mets (though higher, interestingly, than it was in his earlier years in New York), though with a fastball that average 97.5 mph in 2025 he’s still one of the hardest throwing starting pitchers in the game.
deGrom in 2025, though, did have issues with allowing loud contact. And, of course, he had issues with the long ball in 2025, allowing the highest HR/9 rate of his career, and the 16th highest of our 70 pitchers with at least 150 innings.
One of the interesting evolutions deGrom has undergone since joining the Rangers is that he has become a fly ball pitcher. That evolution has actually been in progress for a while — his first four seasons with the Mets, he had a ground ball rate of 47.4% to 48.0%. From 2019 to 2022 it dropped from 45.2% to 40.3%, and has been below 40% all three seasons with the Rangers, including 38.1% in 2025, per Statcast. As a point of reference, Statcast has the MLB average during deGrom’s career at 44.2%.
Really, deGrom’s homer issues didn’t become an issue until the back end of the 2025 season. Through the end of June, deGrom was sporting a 2.08 ERA and 3.08 FIP in 16 games, with just 9 homers allowed. For July through September, deGrom allowed 17 homers in 10 starts, resulting in a 4.07 ERA and a 4.34 FIP.
Weirdly, deGrom’s K rate actually improve somewhat in the final three months, while his walk rate stayed the same. His BABIP, which was miniscule all year — .230, 2nd best in our 70 pitcher sample — dipped slightly. He just went from giving up fewer than 1 home run per 9 innings in the first three months of the season to almost 2 bombs per 9 innings in the final three months.
Is it a cause for concern? Is this a trend, where we are going to be seeing deGrom feeding his gopher more and more often in 2026? Is it a matter of him just wearing down in his first season back after Tommy John surgery?
I do think its not unreasonable to think that the workload caught up to deGrom over the course of the 2025 season. The 172 innings he threw were more than he had thrown in the previous three seasons, majors and minors, combined. It was almost twice as many innings as he’d thrown in any single season, majors and minors combined, since 2019. And of course, he’s 37.
I’m not sure what to expect from deGrom in 2026. I expect he will be good. If he’s as good as he was in the first half of 2025, the Rangers will have one of the best pitchers in baseball.
I’d really like for that to be the case.
Previously: