It’s funny that Tanner Franklin ended up at 12, because that’s about where I thought he’d end up when we started this, and yet it took him a rather long time to actually be added to the voting because he lost two initial votes to players who still haven’t been selected to the top 20. That’s a little odd, and tells me there are certain players where the head-to-head against individual guys may not exactly tell me about his chances to be added to the top 20. Franklin must just be a unique enough pitcher that normal voting rules don’t seem to apply. The current top 20 stands at:
- JJ Wetherholt
- Liam Doyle
- Rainiel Rodriguez
- Quinn Mathews
- Jurrangelo Cjintje
- Joshua Baez
- Leonardo Bernal
- Jimmy Crooks
- Brandon Clarke
- Tink Hence
- Tekoah Roby
- Tanner Franklin
Comparable Player Poll
We’re going to stick to the same theme as yesterday’s polls and run three outfield prospects together and see which player ends up on top. It’s an easy way to turn three potential names that I am considering adding and making it just one name. Makes my job easier later.
Won-Bin Cho has seen some ups and some downs in his short pro career. Things started well enough. He hit reasonably well with a great approach in both the complex league and Low A. He’s had a lot more trouble at High A. He whiffed like crazy and had no power in his first attempt. In his second attempt, his approach was much better, but the results weren’t quite there until a very strong finish to the season. He will either repeat High A with the intention of a quick promotion so long as results are there or he’ll start the year in AA. He’ll be 22.
Colton Ledbetter was the third piece of the Brendan Donovan return. Drafted 55th overall in 2023, Ledbetter played well enough in that draft season at Low A to start his first full pro season in High A. He played there well too, albeit with some strikeout issues. With his promotion to AA, he may have made an emphasis on cutting down his K rate, which he did, but he did see a noticeable drop in power while still managing an above average hitting line. He will be 24 and probably in AAA.
Zach Levenson was drafted in the 5th round of the 2023 draft. While he did well enough in his initial debut season at Low A, he was not particularly impressive in his first attempt at High A. It was almost an average line, but he repeated High A in 2025. This time, he was quite good thanks primarily to an excellent K/BB ratio. He finished the season in AA with a strong showing in 26 games. He will be 24 and probably repeat AA.
New Add
There are obviously still prospects who could arguably be on the poll, but I think we’re in a good place where there’s nobody missing that I feel is kind of egregious. That means I think it’s okay to re-add Ryan Mitchell back to the voting. I think he’s going to be on the voting for good and considering everyone on the current list got at least 9 votes, I feel like there’s no real contenders left who could get removed. Never say never, but I probably won’t have to go to that well again just because honestly there won’t be much time to do it.
Jesus Baez, IF – 21
Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244/.327/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+
Scouting (FG): 30/45 Hit, 35/50 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, 40/45 Fielding
The biggest weakness, near as I can tell, is that Baez is immature. He is also about to be 21-years-old. I’ll be very interesting to see how Baez pans out specifically because I kind of want to know how much weight to put on when a scout like Keith Law essentially goes after his character. It’s one sample, so I shouldn’t use his example for all prospects like him but nonetheless I really am not sure how to handle it.
Nathan Church, OF – 25
Stats (AA): 129 PAs, .336/.380/.563, 6.2 BB%, 7.8 K%, .227 ISO, .327 BABIP, 157 wRC+, 136 DRC+
AAA: 242 PAs, .335/.400/.521, 9.9 BB%, 10.3 K%, .186 ISO, .338 BABIP 144 wRC+, 132 DRC+
MLB: 65 PAs, .179/.254/.250, 4.6 BB%, 27.7 K%, .071 ISO, .237 BABIP, 46 wRC+, 78 DRC+
Scouting: 55/55 Hit, 35/35 Game Power, 40/40 Raw Power, 55/55 Speed, 45/45 Field
I know that scouts can’t constantly update their numbers, but I feel like you are clearly out of date if you’re giving Nathan Church a 45 fielding grade. You don’t want to overrate the small sample of fielding numbers that Church currently has, but I will say when a player posts an 84 percentile sprint speed, has a 92 percentile arm speed, and posts a fairly high OAA, we can probably write off him being a below average fielder. That doesn’t feel like asking much. I’m not convinced he’s as good as his numbers were, mind you, but I am convinced he’s an above average fielder at the least.
Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP – 19
Stats (CPX): 6 G, 20.2 IP, 31.6 K%, 9.2 BB%, 51.2 GB%, .205 BABIP, 0.44 ERA/2.41 FIP/3.29 xFIP
Low A: 13 GS, 51.1 IP, 27.8 K%, 9.4 BB%, 50 GB%, .326 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/2.50 FIP/3.14 xFIP
Scouting: 40/45 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 30/50 Change, 35/50 Command
Acquired in the trade for Willson Contreras, Fajardo is an unusual 19-year-old, because he’s already built up his innings to throw 100 or so innings for the 2026 season. He’s also probably going to be in High A and that is a fairly rare group. His next step is maintaining what he’s been doing, because though he’s a hitter, we saw an example of a very young player struggling to get past High A in Won-Bin Cho these past two seasons. Wouldn’t be totally shocking if he had an adjustment period.
Ixan Henderson, 24 – LHP
Stats (AA): 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA/3.16 FIP/4.00 xFIP/4.51 DRA
Scouting: 50/60 Fastball, 45/50 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 40/50 Command
I’m happy that the voting for Henderson seems to have been unaffected by the recent news of him getting shut down for the moment from throwing. I think that’s the right call. Even if he does end up missing a significant amount of time, it’ll feel more like a hiccup than if say, Tink Hence got injured again. It’s not an injury prone guy who can’t stay healthy, but someone going through the typical injury that just about every starting pitcher seems to face at some point.
Cooper Hjerpe, 25 – LHP
Didn’t pitch
Scouting: 55/55 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 50/50 Change, 45/50 Cutter, 45/50 Command
Good news about Hjerpe: he had Tommy John surgery in April of last season. That is not a statement that is usually said, but basically it means Hjerpe’s Tommy John recovery should put him in line to throw half a season or so of innings. A very reasonable timeframe of returning in fact would have him in line to throw his career high in professional innings. That’s the bad news about Hjerpe: he hasn’t given us a lot of faith in staying healthy.
Brycen Mautz, 24 – LHP
Stats (AA): 25 GS, 114.2 IP, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%. 41.2 GB%, .286 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/3.58 FIP/3.20 xFIP/4.54 DRA
Scouting: 45/45 Fastball, 55/55 Slider, 45/50 Curve, 30/35 Change, 50/55 Command
Mautz has reasonably good scouting, but I’ve always kind of felt like he was almost a scouts versus stats prospect where if scouts were more convinced he would start for sure, then his stats would be good enough to become a legit prospect. What I’m saying is that his stats are strong. He struck out guys, didn’t walk much, got enough groundballs. If he has that exact same line in AAA, he’s an MLB caliber starter I would think.
Ryan Mitchell, 19 – OF
I do not have stats to share with you – I’m sure I can find high school stats, but they aren’t a lot of use on this kind of list. It doesn’t appear Fangraphs has given him scouting grades, I can’t find MLB Pipeline (and I don’t like how they give grades anyway, too high generally). I have access to Baseball Prospectus’ top 20, and while they don’t give Mitchell a scouting grade, I thought just sharing their blurb would suffice:
“Mitchell, a toolsy overslot second-rounder, didn’t play after the draft. For much of his high school career, he would rotate so early that he was more or less standing up when making contact, but his swing became one of the most fun to watch in the class. He dips down a bit and explodes from the lower half. There is some risk he won’t be able to get around against higher velocity fastballs, but his contact rates on the circuit were adequate, and there’s enough athleticism, present bat speed, and physical projection to expect some power. Defensively, he has good actions but could be forced to second base in pro ball. There aren’t any elite tools here, but he presents a pretty well-rounded infield profile and had an arrow up coming into the draft.”
Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B
Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+
High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+
It feels weird that a player as young as Ortiz playing at two separate levels who dominated both levels was not considered a good enough prospect to give an actual scouting report. I feel like the fact that I’m not sharing any scouting numbers with you makes him harder to grade. He has some swing-and-miss and those lines are uncomfortably BABIP-driven, but he was also 20 at High A who had a 168 wRC+.
Yairo Padilla, 19 – SS
Stats (CPX): 38 G, 148 PAs, .283/.396/.367, 12.2 BB%, 14.2 K%, .083 ISO, .340 BABIP, 119 wRC+
Scouting: 25/55 Hit, 20/55 Game Power, 40/60 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 30/40 Field
On the flipside of the scouts versus stats is Padilla on the scouting side. Which is slightly misleading, because as you can see, he does actually have good stats. It’s not necessarily a line that would stand out to me, but an 18-year-old shortstop prospect with a 119 wRC+ in rookie leagues would most likely be a prospect in nearly all outcomes. But clearly there is more power expected specifically and that’s where the scouting part of it comes more into play.
Tai Peete, OF – 20
Stats (High A): 529 PAs, .217/.288/.404, 8.7 BB%, 30.6 K%, .187 ISO, .282 BABIP, 79 wRC+, 79 DRC+
Scouting: 20/30 Hit, 30/50 Game Power, 50/60 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, 45/55 Fielding
And here we have your classic “if only he could make contact a little bit more” prospect. One quick fix and he’s a super prospect. That fix might be the most difficult thing to fix though. Even with his swing-and-miss stuff, he still had 19 homers in 125 games and had a .189 ISO as a 19-year-old playing in High A. That is not that common. Unfortunately, that pesky contact tool. You’ll see that speed and he did steal 25 bases, although he also got caught an unacceptable 11 times. The year before he stole 45 bases and got 6 times. Not really sure why he was such a worse base stealer, but there is base stealing potential in his future.