WEST LAFAYETTE — This Purdue men's basketball team sought a unique championship identity, and it appears that's the only one available to them.
The NCAA tournament selection committee's in-season preview Saturday listed the Boilermakers as a 2 seed. They may straddle the 2-3 line from here on in. Two years after making a chalky run to the national championship game, any path to glory this March and April will be at least slightly more complicated.
Seven of the last eight national champions were No. 1 seeds. That has little to do with early round matchup benefits. Quite simply, the consensus best teams after 30-some regular season games are still the best ones three weeks later.
What a concept.
Oh, and the lone exception to that run of No. 1s? UConn, as a 4 seed, peaked a bit early to win the first of two back-to-back championships.
Purdue two years ago almost joined that club. It put a dominant product on the floor night-in, night-out from the season opener through the national semifinals in Phoenix. A national-championship caliber team ran into a UConn team taking a dynastic turn. The Boilermakers – from Matt Painter’s roster construction through the players’ execution – controlled what they could control and nearly maximized their potential.
This team, despite some big wins away from home and overall strong level of play, does not give off the same force-of-nature vibes.
A No. 1 seed may be out of reach at this point. Even if the Boilermakers end the regular season on a 5-0 run and beat teams such as Michigan (Saturday's overall No. 1 seed) and Illinois in the Big Ten tournament, why would the committee reward those wins over the ones those opponents achieved in Mackey Arena? Iowa State, one of Saturday's other No. 1 seeds, has one of those, too.
However, as long as it does not fall on its face in the next four games, a 2 or 3 seed also seems pretty secure. A win over Michigan State on Thursday would firm up that standing.
This frees Purdue up to worry less about changing its seed and more about changing how people see that seed.
It needs to use the next three weeks to look like the scariest 2 or 3 seed on the bracket. It needs to become the reason fans of No. 1 seeds wince when the Boilers pop up as a potential national semifinal opponent.
That will not require a radical change in performance. It will require a more consistent one – and one girded by continued refinement in key areas.
Per KenPom, Purdue’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 129.7 is better than any national champion. Yet this team arguably has not yet hit a 3-point shooting groove. Before making 10 of 18 against IU Friday, the previous five games featured two of 40%-plus shooting and three under 31%.
Opponents have some say in that, of course. Teams can also catch fire and make an opponent feel helpless. Shooting 3s at a 48.4% clip over a three-game stretch of the 2019 NCAA tournament nearly broke the Final Four drought before Purdue fans had ever heard of Zach Edey.
Flattening the volatility may be less important than catching liftoff at the right moment.
Purdue can, on a given night, dominate the boards. It remains a key component of that offensive efficiency, with put-backs and extra possessions boosting point totals and deflating opponents. Oscar Cluff ranks seventh nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, and Trey Kaufman-Renn remains in the top 30.
More crucial, though, will be choking off its occasional vulnerability on the defensive glass. Illinois and Michigan both laid the foundation for their wins at Mackey with second-chance success. Against an IU opponent it should handle on the glass, Purdue allowed one offensive rebound.
Rebounding stability also remains critical to the biggest remaining question mark.
On the flip side of those KenPom numbers, Purdue’s adjusted defensive efficiency sits at 98.0. Only one national champion posted an ADE over 92.5 — a 2 seed Villanova team, which finished at 94.0.
The Boilermakers cannot change their defensive identity at this point, but they can enhance it. We have seen signs in recent weeks – more consistent effort, better communication, improved attention to detail. They can build on those strides between now and their first-round assignment.
A Purdue team trending up defensively and hitting its stride offensively should make opposing coaches anxious. The mission between today and Selection Sunday should be making whichever No. 1 sits across the bracket feel like it got a raw deal.
Nathan Baird and Sam King have the best Purdue sports coverage, and sign up for IndyStar's Boilermakers newsletter.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: March Madness bracket predictions: Purdue basketball seed, projection 2026