The Yankees had a big decision to make at the start of the offseason. While retaining Cody Bellinger on a long-term deal was high on the priority list, it was unclear what the team thought of their other starting outfielder, Trent Grisham, hitting the open market after a career year. With a questionable résumé prior to his breakout 2025 and a pair of young outfielders on the farm that could take over, there didn’t seem to be much urgency to reward the 29-year-old with a multi-year deal.
Still, they extended him a $22 million qualifying offer, which would provide the Yankees a compensatory fourth-round pick if he signed elsewhere. Whether they counted on him to decline it for more security or not, Grisham accepted the deal, possibly worrying his market would be depressed with the prohibitive qualifying offer and skepticism about his 2025 season being replicated.
With Grisham penciled into center field to start the season, he will have an opportunity to silence his doubters and enter a shallow free agent hitter’s pool next offseason, looking for a big payday.
2025 statistics: 143 games, 581 plate appearances, .235/.348/.464, 34 HR, 84 RBI, 129 wRC+, 14.1 BB%, 23.6 K%, -11 Defensive Runs Saved, -2 Outs Above Average, 3.2 fWAR
2026 ZiPS DC projections: 130 games, 560 plate appearances, .216/.329/.416, 25 HR, 72 RBI, 111 wRC+, 13.6 BB%, 24.7 K%, 3.1 fWAR
A lot has been said on social media about the Yankees reuniting with Grisham. There’s been a great deal of “it’s an overpay” or “he’s a one-year wonder.” In fact, it feels like more fans expect him to be under the Mendoza Line than to repeat his 2025 season.
So can Grisham replicate his terrific 2025? It’s hard to say. It would be foolish to fully expect him to replicate an incredible year where he had a case to be named to the All-Star team, but he showed enough progression in his offensive profile that it can make you truly believe he will continue to be one of the better-hitting center fielders in the game.
For one, he’s 29, not 33. If a guy randomly progresses in his mid-to-late 30s (looking at you, George Springer), you can probably assume some regression to the mean. For Grisham, he’s still in his athletic prime. His xwOBA has absolutely exploded from mediocre to the 91st percentile, indicating he’s doing things to back up his offensive numbers. He’s also improved his strikeout rate, which, while still mediocre, is no longer a serious problem.
A lot of what Grisham has improved, however, has been taking his already good offensive traits and making them elite. He’s historically been above average in barrel rate, average exit velocity, chase rate, and walk rate. In all four areas, he’s raised those numbers to elite. His chase rate, especially, has improved. It’s now in the 99th percentile. He obliterated fastballs in 2025 and used his pull-side power to abuse the short porch.
Grisham’s elite chase and walk rates are what make him the early favorite to be the team’s leadoff hitter on Opening Day. Now, you might want someone who’s a better contact hitter and baserunner to hit in front of the likes of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton, but Grisham’s ability to get on base makes him good enough with the current roster.
It’s actually funny to think about how Grisham, a perennial Gold Glove contender whose bat is the reason he couldn’t stick in starting lineups, completely flipped that script in 2025.
It used to be a given that Grisham would give you that defense, and while he still showed flashes of brilliance last year, he was really bad most of the season. He did play through a hamstring strain during the summer that killed his mobility, but the defense was suspect from start to finish. It’s concerning that a relatively healthy 29-year-old has gone from 88th percentile sprint speed to 32nd in just three years, but he managed to be a terrific defender in 2024 with a similar sprint speed, so maybe there’s still something there. Half the battle is instincts, which Grisham has in abundance.
There’s enough to like in Grisham’s profile to suggest that he’s more likely to be close to the offensive threat he was in 2025, especially considering his contract situation. A good season and he’ll be the top outfielder on the market next offseason, even with the lockout, with no qualifying offer attached. But if he slips up, the Yankees will have options behind him. How long is the leash? We’ll see.
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