Alec Pierce is heading into the offseason as one of the Colts most coveted free agents.
Similar to how Michael Pittman was after 2023, locking up Pierce will provide some necessary certainty to a position group that has never had a cornerstone player.
Two years ago— that might not have been the sentiment. Pierce was about to head into his third year, with some serious question marks about his ability to thrive in the NFL. He looked to be more of a role player than starter.
Michael Pittman had put up over 100 catches in Shane Steichen’s RPO driven offense, but the Colts didn’t have a sustainable option as the X receiver.
Pierce always had the ability to “play above the rim” and be a deep threat in this offense, but the Colts didn’t always look his way because he hadn’t earned the trust of the players around him for it to be a staple of the offense— that and the QB play was lackluster.
After 2023, Alec Pierce was statistically one of the worst separators in the league, according to NGS. He would get jammed at the line, didn’t have much of a route tree, and wasn’t physical enough to consistently make the plays we’re accustom to seeing.
The Colts knew they needed to find an X WR who could stretch the field and win vs press coverage, so they draft Adonai Mitchell in the 2nd round of the 2024 draft. Coming out of Texas, AD was touted for being the ultimate X WR. He was one of the best separators in college football, had a full route tree, and could run a 4.3 at 6’2, 205 LBs.
Chris Ballard promised Alec a chance to compete for the job, and from that point forward, his entire career changed. He came into camp more bulked up and we saw the deep threat ability come to life in 2024.
The Colts offense was fundamentally broken last year relying on a heavy run game and low percentage shot plays to generate explosives, but Pierce was a main reason they could stay afloat.
Aaron Rodgers once talked about how an NFL play is just routes ran on the field with various percentages of a completion. For example, a check down in a progression is a route with a 90% chance of being a completion. A slant is.. say 45%, and the posts and fades that Alec Pierce runs are like a 10% chance of a completion.
Except with Alec they aren’t actually 10%. He made 50/50 balls 70/30. He could get off press or run by a corner playing 10 yards off. His route tree was still very limited at the time, but he ran those routes as good as anyone in the league.
That takes us to this year. The Colts started the year giving Alec the vast majority of reps, while having packages for AD to come in as the X WR and run more of the 3×1 isolation routes. That was all going well, until they realized Pierce wasn’t just an incredible deep threat, but he also had learned to drop his weight and run intermediate routes as well. The Colts traded AD Mitchell to the Jets in a package for Sauce Gardener, and the rest is history.
So what does the Alec Pierce journey tell us?
For starters, QB play is very important— more than I gave it credit for.
I didn’t think Gardner Minshew had this monster arm, but I didn’t think that it was serviceable down the field. He made some throws vs the Titans late in the year to Pierce that I think would confirm that. But I underestimated what his role in the offense could be as a high ADOT player when he had a QB like Flacco and Richardson that likes to push the ball down the field.
We really saw his game come to life as he started to gain confidence. In 2024 he established himself as one of the better deep threats in the NFL.
Well now he’s added even more to his game. He doesn’t have the route tree of some of the leagues’ best players, but he can run enough routes in the intermediate part of the field that makes him much more than just a vertical deep threat.
ook at this out route that Pierce ran vs. Tennessee. It’s a beautiful display of his newly found fluidity.
The Titans are in quarters coverage, which means that after the motion, Pierce knows the corner has him man to man. What’s difficult about this route is that he’s running an out-breaking route against a corner with outside leverage. Watch him fire off the ball and stem his route outside. That gets the corner to widen and then feel pressured once Pierce breaks inside to sell the post. As soon as the corner flips his hips, Pierce knows he has him and does a great job dropping his weight to break at the top of the route.
Not bad for a bottom-five separator in 2023.
So what’s next for Pierce, and is he capable of living up to the contract he’ll sign in free agency?
I think so.
We’ll see what the number comes in at, but I do believe he’ll be worth the money. His ceiling is much higher than Pittman’s was in 2023, and he’s a receiver who could last a long time in this league.
What will hold Alec Pierce back from entering true WR1 or upper-echelon receiver territory is his yards-after-catch ability. At his size, it’s difficult to slip through tackles and accelerate quickly. He’s not a guy the Colts want to throw screens to or quick passes designed to turn upfield.
But if Alec can learn to drop his weight and run a more complete route tree, there’s still untapped potential for him to generate YAC in areas that aren’t 30 yards downfield, once he’s already beaten the corner deep.
Even if the Colts are paying Alec for the player he is right now, that would be worth it, in my opinion.
When the Colts established themselves as one of the best offenses in the league last year, it was because they had defined roles for their eligible receivers, and those players owned those roles at a very high level.
Pierce is one of the league’s best deep threats, and that opens things up underneath for players like Warren and Downs.
That is extremely valuable. We’ve seen what a player like Rasheed Shaheed can do for an offense, and Pierce provides that same stress for the Colts.
What separates Pierce from the rest of the league’s best deep threats is that he also has the size and frame to be physical through the catch point and after contact…. and that’s what will get him paid.