North Carolina’s 82-58 loss to N.C. State wasn’t just a bad night. It might be a preview of what’s coming.
It was the Tar Heels’ largest defeat to the Wolfpack since 1982, and it looked every bit that ugly. They had season lows from the field and from 3-point range, shooting 19-for-60 overall and 5-for-32 from deep. The guards combined to go 11-for-47 from the field and 5-for-29 from 3. Derek Dixon and Seth Trimble were 3-for-21 and 1-for-12 from beyond the arc.
Defensively, it wasn’t much better. N.C. State hit nine of its 20 3s, an even 50%. It was the fifth time this season an opponent has shot at least 45% from 3 against North Carolina. Inside, the same old problems showed up again. UNC won the rebounding battle 40-38, but lost defensive boards and second-chance points 17-12, and was outscored 40-28 in the paint for the fourth time in five games.
This is life without Henri Veesaar and Caleb Wilson.
What’s changed without Veesaar and Wilson
They are not only your two leading scorers but also your top rebounders. It is hard enough to replace one player who is close to a double-double every night. Replacing two, both as versatile as they are, is almost impossible on the fly. And until they are back, what we saw against N.C. State may be the norm, not the exception.
With both out, the frontcourt is being stretched thin. Zayden High has shown he is capable of being the focal point in the paint on offense, but defensively he has not shown it yet. The past two games have made that obvious. Jarin Stevenson can do some of the dirty work inside and out in a way that resembles Veesaar, but he is just one man.
The backcourt’s job has also changed. Before, they were the ones feeding Veesaar and Wilson, playing through them and letting their size and skill tilt matchups. Now, those same guards have to create shots for themselves and carry the scoring load on the perimeter. So far, the numbers suggest they are still searching for answers.
The timeline for help is uncertain. Wilson is expected to return in a few weeks after suffering a fractured left hand. Veesaar is day to day with a calf injury, and head coach Hubert Davis said he is doing better. But how much better? Calf injuries can linger, and if you come back too early, they can lead to something worse, including Achilles tears. Just ask Kevin Durant or Tyrese Haliburton.
Why Veesaar and Wilson went down at the worst time
All of this is happening as the schedule ramps up.
After Syracuse, UNC will welcome Louisville, which has one of the best backcourts in the ACC in Ryan Conwell and Mikel Brown. Conwell is averaging 18.4 points and 5.0 rebounds. Brown is at 18.6 points, 5.1 assists and 3.4 rebounds. We have already seen North Carolina struggle with strong guard play this season, with SMU, Stanford and Cal coming to mind.
Then there is Virginia Tech. The Hokies have length across the board. Only one of their seven players who average at least 23 minutes per game is under 6-foot-4. The one smaller guard, 5-11 Ben Hammond, has played bigger than his size in ACC play, averaging nearly 15 points and two steals per game. That kind of active, long lineup is the exact type that can exploit UNC’s issues on the interior and on closeouts.
The closing stretch does not offer much relief. In North Carolina’s last home game of the season, it will face Clemson, which is 20-7 overall and 10-4 in league play. The Tigers have the second-best scoring defense in ACC play, allowing just 65.3 points per game. For a UNC team that has struggled to generate efficient offense without its top two scorers, that is a concerning matchup.
And of course, the season finale is at Duke on March 7. The Blue Devils will want payback after losing on a last-second shot in an instant classic. Everyone reading this knows I don’t have to say much about this one.
Is There Hope?
Add it all up, and the path forward is bumpy. The offense is searching for identity, the defense is leaking on the perimeter and in the paint, and the schedule is unforgiving. If Veesaar does not return soon, this stretch could spiral.
Like I said, it could get worse before it gets better, especially with so much riding on the health of two players. Given that Veesaar still has not practiced, it is fair to brace for bad news.
But there is room to stay positive. High and Stevenson are getting trial-by-fire reps that could pay off later. The guards are being forced to expand their games. If North Carolina can simply hang on, survive this stretch and get closer to full strength, the same adversity that makes things look so bleak now could make the Tar Heels more dangerous when it finally does get better.
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This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: UNC Basketball: What the NC State loss means moving forward